In June, the international aluminum industry showed a series of positive development trends. From market supply and demand to trade policies, from industrial cooperation to technological innovation, the advantages of many aspects have injected strong momentum into the steady progress of the industry. ​

Market supply and demand: stable demand, inventory reduction

In June, the market supply and demand structure of the aluminum industry showed good resilience. On the supply side, although some alumina enterprises have increased their operating capacity and there are plans for new investment projects in the south in the third quarter, electrolytic aluminum is limited by production capacity and has limited room for production increase, which to a certain extent avoids excessive supply growth. From the demand side, although traditional industries such as white goods have seen a sharp drop in production schedules from July to August, and the pressure on terminal demand has increased, the new energy industry has shown explosive growth. The amount of aluminum used in new energy vehicles has increased by 34% year-on-year, and the demand for photovoltaic frames has also maintained strong resilience. Its strong demand for aluminum has successfully made up for the decline in demand in traditional industries, making the overall aluminum demand stable. ​

At the same time, the market inventory situation is also very optimistic. Last week, the LME market and domestic social inventories continued to destock, and domestic social inventories were at a long-term low. LME aluminum inventories have also shown a continuous downward trend since June. On June 6, LME aluminum inventories recorded 363,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous day. In the past week, the cumulative decrease was 8,675.00 tons, a decrease of 2.33%. The low inventory status reflects the strong market demand and provides strong support for the stability and upward movement of aluminum prices. ​

Price trend: Upward potential in fluctuations​

Although aluminum prices fluctuated in June, they still showed upward potential in the medium term. At the beginning of the month, the price of aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange showed a positive trend. It opened at US$2,477/ton on June 6, and fluctuated during the session, showing an active trading atmosphere in the market. Although there were some price corrections in the middle of the month, such as on June 17, the price of aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange continued to fall, opening at $2,515.5/ton and now at $2,509.5/ton, a drop of 0.30%, but from the overall trend and market fundamentals, there are many supporting factors for aluminum prices. On June 2, Goldman Sachs raised its aluminum price forecast for the second half of 2025 to $2,280 per ton, an increase of $140 per ton, and adjusted its aluminum price expectations for 2026 and 2027, which also reflects the industry's optimism about the future trend of aluminum prices. Under the combined effect of capacity constraints and stable demand, the foundation for the medium-term upward movement of aluminum prices is solid. ​

Trade policy: Active response and seeking win-win results​

In terms of trade policy, although there are some unstable factors, such as the adjustment of aluminum import tariffs by the United States on some countries, countries are also actively taking countermeasures to safeguard their own interests and seek win-win cooperation. Faced with the impact of the United States' 50% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, the Canadian government acted quickly and officially announced on June 19 that it would introduce a package of support policies for the steel industry, including import restrictions, government procurement bias, and possible retaliatory tariffs, in order to protect the competitiveness and employment of its steel and aluminum industries. In addition, Mexican President Sheinbaum said on June 4 local time that the United States' announcement of raising steel and aluminum tariffs was an "unfair measure" and that Mexico would not rule out imposing tariffs on American steel. These measures show that countries are actively safeguarding the interests of their own aluminum industries in the game of trade policies and promoting the international aluminum trade pattern to develop in a more fair and reasonable direction. ​

Industrial cooperation: work together to expand development space​

Industrial cooperation also made positive progress in June. The 2025 China (Guangxi)-ASEAN Mining Cooperation Conference Aluminum Industry Co-chain Action and International Mining Cooperation Seminar was held in Nanning on May 22. The conference was themed "Building a New Aluminum Ecosystem and Driving a New Future for the Region", which built a good communication platform for all parties. Representatives from the government, enterprises, universities and research institutes gathered together to discuss the development of the aluminum industry, actively promote the development of the regional aluminum industry chain, build an efficient and coordinated industrial ecology, and work together to create a closer China-ASEAN aluminum industry community of destiny, which has expanded the development of the international aluminum industry. ​

In June, the international aluminum industry showed obvious advantages and positive changes in market supply and demand, price trends, trade policies and industrial cooperation. These dynamics not only inject vitality into the current development of the industry, but also lay a solid foundation for the continued healthy development in the future. ​